NFL Season Preview: AFC West


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AFC West
1) San Diego Chargers
Strength
Rivers’ confidence: While he does come off arrogant towards fans and opponents at times, it’s that same quality that makes Rivers one of the elite quarterbacks in the league. He’s got complete confidence in his right arm and thinks he can make any throw on the field. This season will be interesting for Rivers for two reasons: first, he’ll lose his top WR target in Vincent Jackson for at least three games because of contract demands, and may lose LT Marcus McNeil (though the Chargers are likely to pay him to get him in camp) for the same reason. Countering those losses, he should have an improved run game with rookie Ryan Matthews poised to collect the majority of the carries, while Darren Sproles can step back in to his role as a specialist. Rivers put the ball in the air 40 times in San Diego’s wild card loss to the Jets last year, but hopefully the addition of Matthews can alleviate some pressure.

Weakness
Unsigned stars: As I mentioned before, both Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil are mired in contract disputes that may cause them to miss significant regular season games (McNeil is more likely to get signed). Shawne Merriman is also yet to be signed, but he’s likely to be in camp so that he can prove that he’s recovered from a knee injury that held him out most of next year. All of the uncertainty has made fans uneasy and experts question how high expectations should be in San Diego. What is certain is that San Diego will need unproven players to prove themselves and quickly; perhaps WRs Legedu Naanee and Buster Davis or LB Larry English will be called upon to step up.

2) Kansas City Chiefs
Strength
Offensive potential: The Patriots of the Midwest have been assembled in Kansas City, at least from a coordinating standpoint. Charlie Weis comes in as Scott Pioli’s offensive coordinator – a position in which Weis has had huge success. His cupboard is not bare either: Matt Cassell is a capable quarterback with a big target in WR Dwyane Bowe, two reliable backs in Jamal Charles and Thomas Jones, and a couple of intriguing rookie weapons in TE Tony Moeaki and WR/RB/KR Dexter McCluster. If he’s physical enough, McCluster could play a variation of Percy Harvin’s role in Minnesota last year. Plus, young LT Branden Albert should be settling nicely on the blind side.

Weakness
Defensive question marks: Despite the addition of S Eric Berry in the draft (a surefire star in my mind), the entire defense is made up of unproven players. The defense may in fact hinge on how well Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey adapt to the 3-4 scheme, and if former DE Tamba Hali can switch to rush linebacker. All three players are recent first round picks, and they need to have an impact in order to take some pressure off a shaky secondary. If they do indeed step up, the Chiefs could take the league by surprise and challenge for a Wild Card spot. (Here’s a nice Chiefs insider piece on some of these players.)

3) Denver Broncos
Strength
A young, driven head coach: I became a Josh McDaniels fan after the Broncos’ 20-17 OT win over the Patriots in week 5, when McDaniels whipped the home crowd into a frenzy as he stalked off the field (here’s a replay, beginning at the :57 mark). In that moment, he wasn’t being a showman - it was authentic, pure emotion that few NFL coaches are willing to show. Teams feed off of fire like that, and a young team looking to go in a new direction will especially get a boost from McDaniels. This is also where Tim Tebow may have the biggest impact overall: Tebow is a born leader and guys WILL follow him sooner or later. If he’s bought in to McDaniels’ philosophy, you can bet that most of the 52 other players will too.

Weakness
Lack of blue chip talent: Michael Lombardi of NFL Network recently taped a podcast with ESPN’s Bill Simmons, and the two spent the majority of the time talking about the blue-chip and red-chip players on each team. They didn’t go through each team individually, but it struck me that the Broncos don’t have many blue-chippers. They let a disgruntled one go in Brandon Marshall and another, elite LT Ryan Clady, may miss some time this season due to a knee injury. That leaves Champ Bailey and Elvis Dumervil as the only elite players active on Denver’s roster, and none on the offensive side of the ball. In fact, when I checked the Lombardi article, the offense had just three blue-chip players. The receiving corp is especially thin, as rookie Demariyus Thomas will start opposite of Eddie Royal. While I think Thomas could make an instant impact, Royal has had a roller-coaster two years in the league and it remains to be seen whether either is anything more than an average receiver. At this point, Denver simply doesn’t have enough weapons on either side of the ball to be a serious contender.    

4) Oakland Raiders
Strength
Potential: The Raiders haven’t been this talent-laden since they went to the Super Bowl in 2002-03 (seems like forever ago huh?). Coach Tom Cable has a stable of fast, athletic receivers ready to break out. For starters Darrius Heyward-Bey, last season’s rookie flop, has looked much improved in OTAs. Some lesser-known receivers may end up having a bigger impact though. Louis Murphy and Chaz Schilens (both are at least 6’2” 200 lbs) are the two most experienced Raider WRs, and Murphy posted 521 yards and 4 TDs in his rookie season. He flashed his ability in a Week 13 upset of Pittsburgh in which he had four catches for 128 yards and 2 TDs, including the game winner. Zach Miller is a reliable tight end, plus Darren McFadden is entering his third season at RB and could be an all-around weapon if he’s able to stay healthy.  

Weakness
Inexperience: As much potential as these Raiders have, they’re equally as short on actual gridiron reps. Heyward-Bey caught all of seven passes last year, Schilens missed 8 games do to a foot injury, while McFadden missed four games and never accumulated more than 17 carries in any game. Considering that this will be at least Jason Campbell’s fourth of fifth offensive coordinator, the former Redskin may have to go through some growing pains early on. Defensively, Rolando McClain will be expected to direct the defense as a rookie at middle linebacker (and I believe he’ll be up to the task), while rookie Lamarr Houston will battle third-year player Desmond Bryant for one of the DT spots.   





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