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AFC South
1) Indianapolis Colts
Strength
Front office management: It’s an underrated weapon because the excutives are rarely seen, but having a competent and shrewd front office is a rare asset for many teams. Owner Bill Polian is better at anyone in the league in finding players who will fit the Colts’ schemes, as well as good locker room guys who’ll cause few problems. They draft well, and it shows with the amount of depth they have at receiver (Wayne/Gonzalez/Garcon/Collie), running back (Addai/Brown/Hart), and along the defensive line (Freeney and Mathis, plus three solid tackles and rookie DT Fili Moala and DE Jerry Hughes). Bottom line, Polian has helped install a playing system and definition of character that his players believe in and buy in to. Not many teams around the league can say that.

Weakness
Run defense: The Colts have never been known for having run stuffers up front, and truth be told the Colts always had enough success that it seemed like a minor issue. But it was a glaring problem in the Super Bowl last year when the Colts were unable to get short yardage stops when they needed them. Statistically the Colts’ D-line was the fourth worst in the league in adjusted line yards (which is basically a measure of how well the defensive line did against the offensive line – Indianapolis gave up 4.53 ALY per carry last season).

2) Houston Texans
Strength
Offensive depth: The Texans are perennially dangerous because of their prolific offense. Matt Schaub puts up big numbers with relatively little fanfare – as does Andre Johnson, who might be the quietest weapon in the league. But it’s what the Texans have beyond Johnson at receiver and in the backfield that make them so tough to stop. Kevin Walter, when healthy is an underrated #2 receiver, while Jacoby Jones is a big-play threat (he had just 27 catches last year, but he had 6 TDs, averaged 16 yards per catch, and four of those catches went for 35+ yards). The backfield, while a headache for fantasy owners, features four players with a chance to earn the starting job. Steve Slaton is the incumbent “starter” but is coming off an neck injury. He’ll be challenged by rookie Ben Tate, Ryan Moats, and Arian Foster. Tate is a great athlete and has a shot to have a big impact right away if he can hold off Moats and Slaton. 

Weakness
The secondary: Though the Texans are indeed competitive, they’re missing some critical components in the defensive backfield. The front seven is solid, with the defensive line ranking in the top 10 in adjusted line yards, and stud linebackers in Demeco Ryans and Brian Cushing (who’ll start the season on suspension due to a violation of the PED policy) patrolling the second level. But the secondary was thrown on too easily last year, which led to teams averaging 25.7 ppg against the Texans in losses (in Houston’s 9 wins they gave up just 16.8 ppg). Footballoutsiders.com reveals that Houston was below average against the opposition’s top two WR’s, and third worst in defending opposing tight ends. Consistency from the secondary, which should be boosted by rookie Kareem Jackson, could separate Houston from the Titans and Jaguars and help them lock up a wild card spot.

3) Tennessee Titans
Strength
The BMOP (Baddest Man On the Planet): It doesn’t take much of an expert to see the type of impact that Chris Johnson had on the Titans’ offense (here are all the stats you need). The Titans will be competitive if he has another similar season. If he gets hurt or doesn’t produce, Tennessee isn’t good enough to stay in the wildcard race without him.

Weakness
The offense beyond CJ: Despite the fact that Vince Young is a unique weapon, he’s not the ideal guy to quarterback a Johnson-led team because he doesn’t have the ability to make defenses consistently pay for loading up against Johnson. Before you counter that the Titans had a markedly better record when Young took over, look at the teams that he beat: Jacksonville, San Francisco, Houston, Buffalo, Arizona, St. Louis, Miami, and Seattle – teams with a combined 53-75 record last year. This season though, the Titans will play the rugged NFC East rather than the softer NFC West.

4) Jacksonville Jaguars
Strength
Success against the division: This has much to do with the fact that no team in the division is extremely adept at stopping the run. Maurice Jones-Drew averaged 98 rushing yards per game in the division (compared with around 82 yards per game against non-divisional opponents) and nine of his 16 touchdowns in six divisional matchups. Look for that success to continue as young bookend tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton continue to improve.

Weakness
Poor drafting/inability to improve: The Jaguars have had some important pieces in place for a couple of years now, but have been hit or miss in the draft (or free agency for that matter). For example, this season the Jags defensive line recorded all of 14 sacks, putting much pressure on the secondary. With a top-10 pick and all of the top defensive ends on the board, the Jaguars passed on both Derrick Morgan and Jason Pierre-Paul to take defensive tackle Tyson Alualu, considered a fringe first-rounder by most experts. They did sign 30-year old Aaron Kampman (who’s coming off a nasty knee injury) and he’ll boost the pass rush, but it seems that they could have gotten better value out of their top 10 pick. They haven’t been on the Raider’s level of catastrophe, but they’ve simply struggled to put together a complete draft class over the course of the last half decade.